Home Strategic Risk Radar (MVP Preview)

Strategic Risk Radar (MVP Preview)

Strategic Risk Radar (MVP Preview)

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As of: 2025-12-30

Executive Summary

Biggest mover (7d)
-10.2 pp
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Most uncertain
1.00 bits
North Korea missile launch by January 31?
Biggest info gain (7d)
+0.37 bits
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Coverage
10/10
Watchlist with bits + liquidity

Meaning Map

Remaining uncertainty (bits: 0 = certain, 1 = coin flip) vs. information gained this week. Top-right is unresolved but updating quickly.

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Top-right: uncertain + resolving fast
Bottom-right: uncertain + stalled
Left: settled / monitor
4/10 watchlist markets have 7d gain data.

Strategic Watchlist

Curated markets with high decision relevance. (Pinned for the MVP view.)

Geopolitics Uncertain

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

P
34.5%
Δ 1d
—
Δ 7d
—
Entropy
0.93
Gain 7d
n/a
Decided
0.07
Liquidity
Med

Direct US involvement risk; pairs with Israel/Iran ladder.

Geopolitics Stable

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

P
7.5%
Δ 1d
-3.0 pp
Δ 7d
-0.5 pp
Entropy
0.38
Gain 7d
+0.02 bits
Decided
0.62
Liquidity
Med

Gray-zone escalation alternative to invasion.

Biggest Movers (Watchlist only)

Up
Down
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? -10.2 pp
US recession by end of 2026? -9.0 pp
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? -1.5 pp

Strategic Watchlist (sortable)

Market Pillar P Δ 1d Δ 7d Entropy Decided Gain 7d Attention ↓ Liquidity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Geopolitics 2.8% -10.7 pp -10.2 pp 0.18 0.82 +0.37 bits 0.99 High
US recession by end of 2026? Macro 25.5% -7.0 pp -9.0 pp 0.82 0.18 +0.11 bits 0.94 Low
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? Geopolitics 8.5% +1.0 pp -1.5 pp 0.42 0.58 +0.05 bits 0.18 Low
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Geopolitics 7.5% -3.0 pp -0.5 pp 0.38 0.62 +0.02 bits 0.07 Med
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Geopolitics 29.5% — — 0.88 0.13 n/a n/a High
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Geopolitics 34.5% — — 0.93 0.07 n/a n/a Med
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Geopolitics 7.1% — — 0.37 0.63 n/a n/a Med
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Geopolitics 52.0% — — 1.00 0.00 n/a n/a Low
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Geopolitics 16.5% — — 0.65 0.35 n/a n/a High
Fed rate hike in 2026? Macro 11.5% — — 0.52 0.48 n/a n/a Low

Briefing Tables

Snapshot-ranked lists for quick triage.

Top resolvers (7d)

Market Gain 7d Entropy P Δ 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? +0.37 bits 0.18 2.8% -10.2 pp
US recession by end of 2026? +0.11 bits 0.82 25.5% -9.0 pp
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? +0.05 bits 0.42 8.5% -1.5 pp
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? +0.02 bits 0.38 7.5% -0.5 pp
North Korea missile launch by January 31? n/a 1.00 52.0% n/a

Most uncertain (liquid)

Market Entropy P Liquidity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? 0.93 34.5% Med
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? 0.88 29.5% High
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? 0.65 16.5% High
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? 0.18 2.8% High

Risk Quadrant

Probability vs uncertainty, sized by liquidity.

Snapshot mode
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Top risks

Market P Unc. Δ 7d Score
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? 100.0% 1.00 0.997 2.54
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? 89.0% 0.50 0.890 2.52
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52
Will TCU win the 2026 College Football National Championship? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? 100.0% 1.00 0.999 2.52

Early Warning

Snapshot mode

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Date Alerts Escalations Note
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 0 0
2025-12-10 1 1

Topics

Snapshot mode

Topic Severity Momentum 7d
sports 200.00 +325496.47
geopolitics 200.00 +43755.26
tech 199.00 +31377.86
crypto 198.00 +123010.59
politics 176.00 +302278.64
macro 107.00 +2276.51

Market Deep Dive

Live mode when rows are present, otherwise snapshot/demo.

Snapshot mode

Market P Decided Liquidity
Will RFK end HPV vaccine recommendation in 2025? 3.4% 0.79 0
Will Candidate Y win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election? 0.0% 1.00 0
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season? 20.5% 0.27 0
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. CSUN Matadors 0.0% 1.00 0
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? 7.5% 0.62 0
Showing snapshot data because the live table returned 0 rows.
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Showing snapshot data because the live table returned 0 rows.