Methodology

What these pages are

Evidence is a decision support surface built on SQL and DuckDB. Pages are markdown and can use templated routes like /topics/[topic] and /markets/[market_id].

Data layers

Packs (fallback): curated Parquet tables mirrored from the Explore packs manifest.
Marts (preferred): Evidence friendly, pre-shaped tables. When present, pages automatically prefer them.

Data contract (marts vs packs)

These pages query a small set of tables. Required columns below are the ones referenced by page queries.

Marts (preferred)

evidence_risk_radar_latest: no required columns; the table is rendered as-is.
evidence_early_warning_daily: a sortable date or timestamp in the first column (used by order by 1).
evidence_topic_summary_daily: topic.
evidence_market_card_latest: market_id, topic.
evidence_market_timeseries_30d: market_id plus a sortable date or timestamp in the first column.

Packs (fallback)

market_summary_daily: no required columns; the table is rendered as-is.
markets_index_latest: market_id.
Topic and early-warning detail pages currently require marts (no packs fallback is shipped for those views).
Market timeseries is served via Explore packs and is not bundled in Pages output.

Degrade gracefully principle

Pages should not crash because a table is missing. Where data is optional, we query via PlSafeQuery and render an error or empty state instead.

Interpretation notes

Treat market probabilities as signals, not ground truth.
Use uncertainty metrics as where to look, not what to conclude.