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Strategic Risk Radar (MVP Preview)

Decision support briefings built from prediction market and open source signals. This front door highlights the curated watchlist used in the MVP view. For the full dashboard, visit MVP Preview.

As of: 2025-12-30

Executive Summary

Biggest mover (7d)
-10.2 pp
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Most uncertain
1.00 bits
North Korea missile launch by January 31?
Biggest info gain (7d)
+0.37 bits
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Coverage
10/10
Watchlist with bits + liquidity

Meaning Map

Remaining uncertainty (bits: 0 = certain, 1 = coin flip) vs. information gained this week. Top-right is unresolved but updating quickly.

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Top-right: uncertain + resolving fast
Bottom-right: uncertain + stalled
Left: settled / monitor
4/10 watchlist markets have 7d gain data.

Strategic Watchlist

Curated markets with high decision relevance. (Pinned for the MVP view.)

Geopolitics Uncertain

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

P
34.5%
Δ 1d
—
Δ 7d
—
Entropy
0.93
Gain 7d
n/a
Decided
0.07
Liquidity
Med

Direct US involvement risk; pairs with Israel/Iran ladder.

Geopolitics Stable

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

P
7.5%
Δ 1d
-3.0 pp
Δ 7d
-0.5 pp
Entropy
0.38
Gain 7d
+0.02 bits
Decided
0.62
Liquidity
Med

Gray-zone escalation alternative to invasion.

Biggest Movers (Watchlist only)

Up
Down
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? -10.2 pp
US recession by end of 2026? -9.0 pp
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? -1.5 pp

Strategic Watchlist (sortable)

Market Pillar P Δ 1d Δ 7d Entropy Decided Gain 7d Attention ↓ Liquidity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Geopolitics 2.8% -10.7 pp -10.2 pp 0.18 0.82 +0.37 bits 0.99 High
US recession by end of 2026? Macro 25.5% -7.0 pp -9.0 pp 0.82 0.18 +0.11 bits 0.94 Low
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? Geopolitics 8.5% +1.0 pp -1.5 pp 0.42 0.58 +0.05 bits 0.18 Low
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Geopolitics 7.5% -3.0 pp -0.5 pp 0.38 0.62 +0.02 bits 0.07 Med
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Geopolitics 29.5% — — 0.88 0.13 n/a n/a High
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Geopolitics 34.5% — — 0.93 0.07 n/a n/a Med
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Geopolitics 7.1% — — 0.37 0.63 n/a n/a Med
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Geopolitics 52.0% — — 1.00 0.00 n/a n/a Low
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Geopolitics 16.5% — — 0.65 0.35 n/a n/a High
Fed rate hike in 2026? Macro 11.5% — — 0.52 0.48 n/a n/a Low

Briefing Tables

Snapshot-ranked lists for quick triage.

Top resolvers (7d)

Market Gain 7d Entropy P Δ 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? +0.37 bits 0.18 2.8% -10.2 pp
US recession by end of 2026? +0.11 bits 0.82 25.5% -9.0 pp
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? +0.05 bits 0.42 8.5% -1.5 pp
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? +0.02 bits 0.38 7.5% -0.5 pp
North Korea missile launch by January 31? n/a 1.00 52.0% n/a

Most uncertain (liquid)

Market Entropy P Liquidity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? 0.93 34.5% Med
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? 0.88 29.5% High
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? 0.65 16.5% High
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? 0.18 2.8% High

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